Defined-risk options desk 0DTE SPX, flat by the bell

The market shows its hand at 3:25

Every session ends the same way: thirty-five minutes where the S&P picks a direction or pins. I trade that window with defined-risk SPX structures whose worst case is a number I choose before entry, and I post every fill, win or lose.

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SPX 5-wide butterfly  ·  5965 / 5970 / 5975  ·  0DTE LIVE
SPX spot
5,970
Open P/L
+$315
Status
In the profit zone
Max loss, fixed at entry
−$185
Profit zone Loss capped at the debit Value at expiration Dashed lines: breakevens
4
Defined-risk strategies
2
Windows a day: 9:45 and 3:25 ET
4:00
Flat every day, nothing held overnight
10 yr
Backtested on real SPXW quotes and fees
The playbook

Four plays. Both worst cases known
before the order is sent.

Every structure is defined-risk and same-day expiry. Two numbers matter on each one: the planned exit, where the rules get out, and the true max, what a gap straight through the stops can cost. Figures below are per one contract.

09:45 ETCalm market

AM Iron Condor

"get paid if nothing happens"

When the market settles inside its calm-day bands, the bot sells premium about 1% above and below. Price stays in the range, the credit is kept.

Planned exit
banks 80% of credit
True max
−$450
15:25 ETMain event

PM Broken-Wing Butterfly

"ride the afternoon drift"

When momentum flips with a trend that 4 of 6 timeframes agree on, a lopsided fly aims where price is drifting into the close. A move through the target cannot hurt it. Only a full reversal can.

Planned exit
+$160, or trails
True max
−$270
15:25 ETWhen it's cheap

PM Standard Butterfly

"the budget version"

Same afternoon trend logic in a symmetric fly, taken when the debit is small. Best risk to reward of the four, and the one that needs the cleanest pin.

Planned exit
stop −$50
True max
−$100
15:25 ETNo trend

PM Range Butterfly

"the pin play"

On trendless afternoons, when the gauge reads flat and price is bouncing in a real box, it bets on a finish near the middle. Never taken against a strong trend.

Planned exit
out on box break
True max
−$100
Why the numbers hold

Risk is bought in an exact quantity.

A naked short option has an open-ended worst case. I never take one. Every play pairs a short leg with a long leg further out, so the loss caps itself at a fixed number that is arithmetic, not hope.

01Sizing before conviction. Contracts come from account equity at a fixed ladder step, decided before the setup exists.
02The ladder steps down too. It adds risk in $2,500 equity steps and reduces automatically after drawdowns.
03Wings widen instead of stacking. As the account grows the condor widens rather than adding contracts, which keeps brokerage fees from eating the edge.
04XSP for small accounts. The same trades at exactly one tenth the size, about $27 of risk on the main fly.
SIZING LADDER · PER STRATEGYUPDATED AT EVERY ENTRY
Account equityBroken-wingStandard flyCondorWorst normal day
$3,000
XSP recommended
111 narrow−$25
$10,000
SPX, fixed 1-lot
111−$250
$25,000
ladder step 2
221 wide−$500
$50,000
ladder step 4
441 wider−$1,000
Pause switch
any equity
000$0
How it works

Watch it, or run it in your own account.

The signal feed is educational: you see what I take and decide for yourself. The copier tier is software you run, on your machine, in your brokerage account, at settings you choose.

1

Set your parameters

Pick which of the four strategies to follow, choose fixed contracts or a percent of account, set a hard max-contract cap. SPX or XSP.

2

Connect your broker

Link your own brokerage account. Nothing runs until you switch it on, and the pause button stops new entries instantly while exits keep protecting open trades.

3

The rules do the rest

Entries fire only when a setup qualifies. Profit floors, trailing locks, stops and time exits run automatically, and every fill lands in your journal.

Track record

The decade report, including the ugly parts.

Here is every trading day from January 2016 to June 2026, replayed on the real SPXW 0DTE quote tape with real brokerage fees, running the same entry and exit rules the bot runs live. I start it with $1,000, add $400 a month, and it sizes every trade off the running balance exactly the way the live bot does. It is a backtest, not a promise. History is history. But it is honest history, real quotes, real fees, losses and all.

Full system, after fees
AM condor plus the PM butterflies, sizing ladder on
Backtest, not a promise
Contributed
$51,400
Final value
$176,147
Net gain
+$124,747
Max drawdown
−32%
Worst day
−$1,754
Yearly net, after fees
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 green = net up red = net down

Eight of eleven years finished green. The three red ones are all up front, 2016 through 2018, back when the account was small and still learning to walk. That is also where the worst drawdown lives. Down 32% in 2018, from about $13,700 in July to $9,400 in November, then back to new highs by the following spring. It stung, and it took nine months to heal. Here is the part I want you to sit with. The scary drawdowns all happen early, on a small pile. Once the account grew past forty grand, no year pulled back more than single digits. The risk shrinks as it compounds. But that first stretch is real, and I would rather you know it now than learn it in month seven.

Every fill posts as it happens

Entry tickets, exit cards and the live payoff graphic land in the feed while the trade is on. Red days included, nothing deleted after the fact.

Live paper fills, timestamped

The cards come off real orders in a live paper account, stamped into the feed the second they fill. Nothing gets drawn from a spreadsheet after the close. The money is not real yet, and it stays that way until the paper track has earned the right to be funded.

No trade is a result too

About a third of days nothing qualifies, so nothing fires, and that gets posted as well. Waiting is the hardest part of the job and it is most of the edge.

Free course

Options 101, into the close.

Seven emails, one idea each, written for someone who has never traded an option. By the last one you can read every card I post and check my work yourself.

Day 01

What an option actually is

Calls and puts explained with a grocery store rain check, and the one sentence that caps a buyer's risk.

Day 02

Reading a payoff diagram

Floor, peak, crossings. Five seconds to read any trade, including every one I post.

Day 03

Why 0DTE is not a dirty word

The clock was never the problem. Sizing and undefined risk were, and both are choices.

Day 04

The floor

How a spread turns a worst case into a number you purchase in an exact quantity.

Day 05

The butterfly, demystified

Why a three-strike tent can risk $100 to make $400, and why it only gets placed at 3:25.

Day 06

The iron condor morning

Getting paid when nothing happens, and the management rules that keep it honest.

Day 07

3:25, putting it together

The whole playbook on one clock, and how to watch it run live if you want to.

After the course

Weekly, into the week

Sunday night: the dates that can move the market, how I am playing them, and the swing scanner's top five.

Start with lesson one, free

The first email lands in your inbox today. No card, no upsell for a week, and the last lesson is the only one that mentions membership at all.

7 lessons · about 4 minutes each · unsubscribe anytime
Membership

Learn free. Upgrade when watching
is not enough.

The free tier is not a trial. It stays free, and plenty of members never leave it.

The classroom
$0
Everything you need to understand what a defined-risk desk does all day.
  • Options 101, the full 7-day course
  • Read every card I post, and check my work
  • Into the Week, every Sunday
  • Weekly recap card, wins and losses
Start free
MOST POPULAR
The signal feed
$29 / month
Watch the desk work in real time, with the cards you learned to read in the course.
  • Live alerts on entries, exits and adjustments
  • Live payoff cards that update while a trade is on
  • Morning condor and 3:25 butterfly signals
  • Weekly P/L review and scanner boards
  • Members-only Discord
Join on Patreon →
Cancel anytime · educational signals, you place your own trades
Autopilot
Soon
Software you run yourself, so the same rules fire in your account at your size.
  • Follower app mirrors entries and exits
  • Console: fixed or percent sizing, SPX or XSP
  • Max-contract cap, per-strategy override, pause switch
  • Fill tracking against the desk's prices
Join the waitlist
Launching after licensing is complete · first 10 founders lock 50% off for life
Questions

Asked often, answered straight.

I have never traded an option. Is this for me?+

That is exactly who I wrote the free course for. Options 101 assumes zero background and gets you to fluency in seven short emails. Stay on the free course and the Sunday note as long as you like. Upgrade only if watching the trades run live starts to feel useful.

How risky is 0DTE, honestly?+

Same-day options can lose 100% of what you paid, quickly. That is exactly why the bot only trades defined-risk structures: the maximum loss is a fixed number chosen before entry, usually $50 to $270 per contract, enforced by automatic stops and a hard flat-by-the-bell rule. The risk is real. It is never open-ended.

Do you place trades in my account?+

No. The signal feed is educational: you see my entries and exits and decide what to do in your own account. The Autopilot tier is software you run yourself, with your own broker and your own settings, and it launches only after the appropriate licensing is complete.

How much money do I need?+

To learn, nothing. To trade one contract of the playbook comfortably, most members start somewhere around $3,000 to $10,000, and XSP runs the same trades at one tenth the size for smaller accounts. Under $25,000 in a margin account, US pattern day trading rules limit you to three day trades per five business days. A cash account avoids that. The course covers all of it.

What results should I expect?+

No promises, and be suspicious of anyone in this business who makes them. What you get is the full tape: every win and every loss posted as it happens, so you can judge me on evidence instead of marketing. A backtest is history. Last month is one month. Neither guarantees the next one.

What happens on a day with no setup?+

Nothing fires, and I post that too. Roughly a third of sessions produce no qualifying trade. That is the system working. Most edges in this market die from over-trading, and this one is built to wait.

15 : 25 : 00 ET

The close is coming. Learn to read it.

Lesson one takes four minutes and costs nothing. By lesson seven you can audit every trade I post.